The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported US energy imports in May.
Russian energy resource imports fell to zero following the Biden Administration Product Ban. Following the import ban, gasoline prices hit their all-time highs, leading to a surge in inflation as transportation costs soar. The greed of big business reporting record profits as households try to keep up isn’t helping inflation.
To fill the shortfall in imports from Russia and the subsequent increase in domestic and European demand, US oil producers are rapidly increasing production. The EIA estimates that oil production will reach 11.9 million barrels per day (b/d) by the end of the year. Next year, the agency expects the 2019 record of 12.3 million b/d to breakwith manufacture reaching an average of 12.7 million bpd. These record projections come after the Senate passed the most important package to fight climate change. Investments should increase the current emissions reduction trajectory until forty percent of about twenty-five percentcompared to 2005 levels.
Crude oil, petroleum and gasoline
The EIA also expects oil and liquid fuel consumption will increase in the coming years:
Without significant efforts to reduce the use of fossil fuels, increase energy from renewable sources, or completely reduce energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions will increase globally in the coming year. At a time when the science is crystal clear and the concrete examples of the record heat felt around the worldmaking such a bet on emissions is extremely dangerous.
Natural gas consumption tells a similar story, with the EIA forecasting a three percent increase to 85.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by the end of this year, compared to 2021 levels. As communities across the country battle record heat, much of the increase in 2022 was “consumption reflects increased consumption in the residential and commercial sectors. due to colder temperatures on average in 2022 than in 2021.” Climate change doesn’t just mean more warming, it brings with it more extreme temperatures to levels. However, unlike oil, The EIA expects consumption to drop to an average of 83.8 billion cubic feet per day in 2023. This does not mean that production will also decrease. The United States should increase its exports of liquefied natural gas to 12.7 Bcf/d in 2023 compared to a projected average of 11.2 Bcf/d this year.
Coal production follows a similar trend to that of natural gas. While consumption is expected to decline due to “constraints on coal production and mine closures as well as limitations on coal transportation”, production and exports are expected to increase.
|Coal (in millions of short wires)||2021||2022||2023|
|Production||578 MMst||599 MMst||601 MMst|
|Consumption||546 MMst||541 MMst||493 MMst|
|Exports||85 mmst||87 MMst||98 mmst|
Renewable energies and looking to the future
The US energy outlook is mixed. Investments in renewable energy are expected to increase, especially after tax credits and other incentives included the Inflation Reduction Actbut it is not known whether the gains will be sufficient to compensate for possible increases in the production and consumption of fossil energy sources.
“We project that renewable sources will supply 22% of U.S. generation in 2022 and 24% in 2023, up from 20% in 2021,” the report read.
The House of Representatives is expected to consider the bill this week, with most leaders saying they are confident it will pass.