Still too early to make solid production estimates, says market analyst – RealAgriculture

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Growing conditions on the prairies are extremely variable.

Too hot, too dry, too wet, too cool – conditions vary which makes reading production numbers a bit tricky.

Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodities Research says that while there are a lot of big question marks, overall production appears to be in better shape this year than it was around the same time. ‘last year.

“In my opinion, last year there were no moisture reserves in the soil. And then when we had this extreme heat, it just smoked the crop. I have never seen a crop deteriorate so quickly,” Penner recalls. “This year, as we go into July, it’s going to be even hotter, and things like that. But there is some soil moisture and plenty of areas that will help counter the heat even if we get it. And I really don’t want to see a repeat of last year.

It can be tricky to review production estimates at this time of year, as many are still in the middle of spray season. In order to get an idea of ​​what could happen, Penner and the group at LeftField Commodities Research are studying possible scenarios of what could happen.

From there, they see what each scenario could do to crop balance sheets. For the most part, when looking at past years’ averages, they don’t take into account 2021, because the widespread extreme drought causes the averages to be much lower than they probably really are.

“For something like peas, the range would be maybe 2.6 to 3.4 million tonnes, and in the middle of that there’s three, so that’s kind of the range we could look at. And then how does that affect or how does that play against a possible request? And all those types of things. But, if anyone is trying to make solid estimates at this point, they haven’t learned the lesson of last year.

Check out the full conversation for a breakdown of pulses, canola, wheat, and the impacts of Russia and Ukraine, below:


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