Balloon fertilizer prices and cost of production considerations are increasingly under scrutiny • Farm Policy News


Bloomberg writers Kim Chipman and Elizabeth Elkin reported late last week that “Soaring fertilizer prices could lead to Falling US Corn Profits about A quarter next year, potentially motivating farmers to gap millions of acres less expensive soy.

“Fertilizer Price Shock Threatens to Squeeze Corn Profits in the United States,” by Kim Chipman and Elizabeth Elkin. Bloomberg News (October 21, 2021).

“That’s according to Terry Roggensack, agriculture specialist and co-owner of The Hightower Report. He predicts corn is coming back on a operating cost basis for producers in the United States, the world’s largest producer, could drop to around $ 430 an acre. This compares to about $ 600 This year. The yellow grain use more fertilizer than other cultures like soy and corn. “

The Bloomberg article stated that “Farmers may find it more attractive to plant soy, with operating cost returns for oilseeds pinned to $ 500 an acre, according to Roggensack.

“Current estimates in 2022 of non-land costs for high productivity farmland in central Illinois are $ 677 an acre for corn and $ 413 an acre for soybeans. The estimate of $ 677 per acre for corn is $ 70 higher than the cost of $ 607 for 2021. The estimate of $ 413 for soybeans is $ 42 per acre higher than the cost of $ 371 for 2020. ”( Schnitkey, G., C. Zulauf, K. Swanson, and N. Paulson. “Planting decisions 2022, nitrogen fertilizer prices and corn and soybean prices.” Farmdoc daily (11): 145, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics , University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, October 19, 2021).

Also last week, Bryan Doherty reported to Successful Farming Online that, “Soaring fertilizer prices and expectations of an increase in soybean acreage in the coming year could create a cash in the price ratio of corn to soybeans. “

Illinois Cost of Production Report (biweekly). USDA- Agricultural Marketing Service (October 21, 2021,

The article added that “Now we are seeing fertilizer prices skyrocket, and greater concern might be uptime. “

“Corn and natural gas prices have gone up, indicating that fertilizer prices are likely to go up. Schnitkey, G., C. Zulauf, K. Swanson, and N. Paulson. “Planting decisions 2022, nitrogen fertilizer prices and corn and soybean prices.” farmdoc daily (11): 145, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, October 19, 2021.

More generally on fertilizer prices, Bloomberg editors Randy Thanthong-Knight and Jasmine Ng reported on Friday that “Rice, the staple food of half of humanity, is becoming more expensive because of a soaring fertilizer prices. “

The Bloomberg article explained that “Global Fertilizer Costs exploded to records on a perfect storm of events – extreme weather conditions and plant closures to government sanctions. The energy crises in Europe and China are compounding the impact as coal and natural gas are important raw materials. The rising costs come at a worrying time, with international food prices at their highest level in a decade.

China It is also stepping up oversight of its fertilizer industry, including imposing new barriers on exporters in an effort to protect domestic supplies. “

Other costs are also on the rise, notably diesel fuel (see below) and propane.

Des Moines Register writer Donnelle Eller reported on Saturday that “Propane Price in Iowa averaged $ 2.03 per gallon last week, 84% more than the same period a year earlier, show data from the Energy Information Administration.

“Prices could go up to around $ 3 per gallon this winter, said Jay Christie, former chairman of the Iowa Propane Gas Association board of directors.

During this time, Alain Bjerga, a spokesperson for the National Dairy Farmers Federation, was quoted in a FoxBusiness News article last week:

“If you are a dairy farmer anywhere in the country, you see an increase in everything you need to produce milk. “

Nonetheless, against the backdrop of net returns, the prices of some agricultural commodities are robust.

Bloomberg writers Kim Chipman and Megan Durisin reported last week that “Spring wheat jumped to $ 10 a bushel for the first time since 2012 as the hot, dry harvest conditions from the prairies of North America to the Urals in Russia are leaving the world short of grains used to make everything from croissants to pizza crusts.

“Wheat Reaches New Highs as Global Appetite Rises and Supply Declines,” by Kim Chipman and Megan Durisin. Bloomberg News (October 22, 2021).

“Prices have climbed for the sixth consecutive week, longest winning streak in over two years, as the global appetite grows for corn all sorts. The United States expects aggregate grain stocks to end the season at their lowest level in five years. Scarcity drives demand for hard red winter wheat, which was more abundant this year than the other varieties. These futures have skyrocketed to a seven year old. “

Also last week, Bloomberg writers Jen Skerritt and Kim Chipman reported that “durum wheat prices in the province of Alberta in western Canada have increased by over 60% since August and are currently trading near the highest since at least 2015, according to data from Farmers Advanced Risk Management Co. in Winnipeg.

“Your bowl of pasta is getting more expensive as drought wipes out wheat fields,” by Jen Skerritt and Kim Chipman. Bloomberg News (October 22, 2021).

The Bloomberg article stated that, “In North Dakota, the US Midwestern state that produces about 80% of the country’s harvest, grain elevator prices almost doubled since June, [Jim Meyer, president of St. Louis-based Italgrani USA, North America’s largest semolina and durum flour miller] noted.”

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